Discussion Papers
Innovation and Entrepreneurship Research
Innovation and Entrepreneurship Research
Mapping Global Value Capture in Carbon Crediting Projects
(2026). Mapping Global Value Capture in Carbon Crediting Projects.
Carbon offsetting mechanisms promise to mitigate climate change and provide economic development opportunities, yet their actual economic impacts are poorly understood. Here, we leverage large language models to identify and analyze a global network of organizations involved in 600 carbon crediting projects worldwide, capturing 2,706 unique organizations, 4,350 network ties, and 1,527 interactions with local value chains. Large, well-connected organizations that control carbon rights and services capture the most value. However, value capture by local organizations varies significantly: in Africa, 70% of carbon service providers are located outside the continent (mainly in Europe and North America), compared to 39% in Latin America and 12% in Asia. Further, we show that carbon projects' land tenure arrangements strongly impact outcomes for local stakeholders. Projects maintaining unchanged land tenure improve existing local value chains in 62% of cases, while projects with changed land tenure restrict them in 67% of cases.