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Options for Addressing the Risk of Non-permanence for Land-Based Mitigation in Carbon Crediting Programs

Schneider, Lambert; Haase, Isabel; Broekhoff, Derik; Neef, Till (2024). Options for Addressing the Risk of Non-permanence for Land-Based Mitigation in Carbon Crediting Programs. Rome: FAO.

To mitigate climate change, global efforts must focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and removing atmospheric CO2. Carbon crediting programmes offer incentives by issuing tradable credits for each tonne of CO2 equivalent reduced or removed. However, these credits often face a challenge called "non-permanence" or reversal risk, where carbon stored in reservoirs like forests and soils may be rereleased due to natural or human-induced events.Reversal risks arise from various factors, including susceptibility to depletion, underlying drivers of depletion, and reservoir size. Carbon crediting programmes address this through monitoring, temporary crediting, and issuance deductions to account for future reversals. Some programmes also propose “tonne-year” crediting, where credits are issued for each year carbon remains stored.Host countries bear the responsibility for reversals within their borders, which complicates their ability to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. This potential imbalance necessitates improved greenhouse gas inventory systems, fair sharing of mitigation benefits, and prioritizing low-risk projects. Effective reversal risk management requires a long-term approach to minimize risks, recognizing the inherent non-permanence in land-based mitigation activities.This paper was produced by FAO under its AIM4Forests programme thanks to finance from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/cd3083en