Like physical products, new technologies are developed using globally sourced inputs. But while the supply chains behind physical goods are well understood, we know far less about the international ”supply chain” of scientifi c knowledge that powers U.S. innovation—and how vulnerable it may be to disruption. Here, I uncover the structure of the U.S. knowledge supply chain by tracing multi-generational citation paths that connect NSF-funded research to downstream patents, and assess its fragility by simulating barriers that impede the fl ow of scientifi c knowledge across the U.S. border. The results reveal that U.S. innovation is deeply reliant on foreign science: 56% of the intermediary papers linking NSF research to patents are produced outside the United States. Cross-border restrictions reduce the connectivity of these paths, increase their length, and lower innovation productivity, as measured by the U.S. patent-to-publication ratio. Most consequentially, such restrictions strand promising knowledge trajectories outside the U.S.: I estimate there are 104,149 NSF-stimulated paths currently under development outside the U.S. Under the status quo, 67,965 are projected to return to the U.S. for patenting. However, under scientifi c autarky, virtually none would, representing a loss of approximately $10.7 billion in invested capital. These impacts also affect U.S. fi rms that are critical to national priorities, including innovation, energy, and security. For example, autarky reduces outstanding path capture at Microsoft, ExxonMobil, and Lockheed Martin by between 48% and 57%.
Ansprechpartner: Daehyun Kim
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